Estimating the Size of the Commercial Real Estate Market in the U.S.
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The approximated overall dollar value of business property was $20.7 trillion since 2021: Q2.
Highlights
This research note summarizes a research study by Nareit primarily using information from CoStar that estimates the total dollar worth of industrial property was $20.7 trillion since 2021: Q2. This study updates and builds upon the methodology for Nareit's previous estimates of the industrial real estate market.
Table 1 sums up the price quotes by residential or commercial property sector. The total price quote is $20.7 trillion. Measurement problems with the underlying data suggest that the real worth of total CRE may differ from this point price quote. An evaluation of these sources of unpredictability suggests that the actual worth is highly likely to fall within a variety of $18 - $22 trillion. These quotes are based on a bottom-up technique utilizing the best readily available data for each residential or commercial property sector.
We likewise estimate overall REIT holdings of commercial real estate using information from Capital IQ Pro. For the 2nd quarter of 2021, REITs make up an estimated 9.4% of the overall CRE market. REITs tend to focus on institutional-quality residential or commercial properties that are newer and of greater quality than numerous other commercial residential or commercial properties that are owned by private financiers. We approximate the total worth of these "REIT-like" residential or commercial properties to be roughly 50% of the overall CRE market and that the REIT share of "REIT-like" residential or commercial properties is 18.7% for the second quarter of 2021.
Chart 1 shows a time series of the REIT share of the total CRE market and the REIT share of the REIT-like CRE market.
Methodology
To approximate the size of the business property market, we use a multi-step technique based on the best readily available data for each residential or commercial property sector.
- We begin by determining and estimating the variety of systems (for multifamily) and overall square video (for other residential or commercial property sectors) by residential or commercial property sector and residential or commercial property quality type for the largest 200 markets in the U.S. This procedure used CoStar's data export function covering the Office, Retail, Multifamily, and Industrial residential or commercial property sectors that offered total square video and units in addition to the typical cost per square foot (for office, retail, and commercial) or per system (for multifamily).
- The details on square footage and average cost by residential or commercial property type (for retail: General Retail, Mall, Neighborhood Center, and Strip Center