Indonesia prepares to carry out B40 in January
Because case, rates may rally 10%-15% in Jan-March, Mielke says
B40 will need extra 3 mln tons feedstock, GAPKI states
Malaysia palm oil standard at greatest since mid-2022
India might withdraw import tax hike amid inflation, Mistry says
(Adds expert comments, updates Malaysia's palm oil standard price)
By Bernadette Christina
NUSA DUA, Indonesia, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Indonesia's palm oil output is forecast to recuperate in 2025 after an expected drop this year, however costs are expected to remain elevated due to scheduled expansion of the country's biodiesel mandate, industry analysts said.
The palm oil standard rate in Malaysia has actually risen more than 35% this year, lifted by sluggish output and Indonesia's strategy to increase the obligatory domestic biodiesel blend to 40% in January from 35% now in an effort to lower fuel imports.
Palm oil output next year in top manufacturer Indonesia is expected to recuperate by 1.5 million metric tons compared to a projected drop of simply over a million heaps this year, Julian McGill, handling director at Glenauk Economics, told the Indonesia Palm Oil Conference on Friday.
Thomas Mielke, head of Hamburg-based research study firm Oil World, said he expects Indonesia's palm oil production to increase by as much as 2 million heaps next year after a 2.5 million heap drop in 2024.
While Indonesia's output is anticipated to enhance, provide from in other places and of other veggie oils is seen tightening.
Palm oil output in neighbouring Malaysia is anticipated to dip slightly next year after increasing by an estimated 1 million loads in 2024.
"We would require a healing in palm in 2025 since combined exports of soya, sunflower and rapeseed oils are declining," Mielke stated.
'FRIGHTENING' PRICE SURGE
The price rise in palm oil in the previous seven weeks has actually been "frightening" for buyers, Mielke said, adding that it would rally by 10%-15% in January-March if Indonesia imposes the so-called B40 policy.
The Indonesia Palm Oil Association said of around 3 million heaps will be needed for B40 implementation, deteriorating export supply.
The present palm oil premium has already caused palm to lose market share against other oils, Mielke added.
Malaysian palm oil prices are seen trading at around $950 to $1,050 per metric lot in 2025, McGill of Glenauk estimated.
Benchmark Malaysian palm oil touched 5,104 ringgit ($1,165.30) on Friday, the greatest given that mid-2022.
"Sentiment today is red-hot and very bullish, we have to take care," stated Dorab Mistry, director at Indian durable goods business Godrej International.
He forecast the Malaysian price around 5,000 ringgit and above until June 2025.
Mielke and Mistry advised Indonesia to
consider postponing
B40 execution on concern about its effect on food consumers.
Meanwhile, Mistry expected leading palm oil importer India to withdraw its
import duty hike
enforced from September after elections in the state of Maharashtra in November. ($1 = 4.3800 ringgit) (Reporting by Bernadette Christina Munthe Writing by Fransiska Nangoy
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Indonesia Palm Oil Output Seen Recovering in 2025, but Biodiesel
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